The Regional Studies Center (RSC) held its latest closed monthly briefing on April 30, consisting of a comprehensive analysis of recent political, economic and military security trends in the region, but with a detailed assessment of the new Armenian government, as well as an added report on recent RSC events and working visits to Tbilisi and Turkey.

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The RSC staff briefed a visiting delegation from the Swiss OSCE Chairmanship on April 16.  RSC Director Richard Giragosian and Resident Fellow Linn Nettelvik from the Swedish Defense College offered an analysis of the Nagorno Karabakh mediation effort, centering on the military balance of power and an objective assessment of the OSCE peace process.  The RSC also offered several concrete proposals related to confidence-building measures and ideas for a de-escalation of tension and ceasefire violations.  The Swiss delegation was led by Ambassador Angelo Gnädinger, the OSCE Special Representative for the South Caucasus, and included Christian Disler, Political Advisor at the Permanent Mission of Switzerland to the OSCE, and Martin Schuster, Policy Support Officer at the OSCE Conflict Prevention Centre (CPC) in Vienna.  Swiss Ambassador to Armenia, Lukas Gasser, also accompanied the delegation and attended the briefing.

On 15 April, the RSC staff provided a detailed briefing on military security and Armenian defense reform to a visiting delegation from the French Ministry of Defense.  RSC Director Richard Giragosian and Resident Fellow Linn Nettelvik from the Swedish Defense College provided an assessment of the situation in Nagorno Karabakh, and reviewed Armenia’s commitment to modern defense reform and noted Armenia’s contribution to regional and international security.  The French Defense Ministry officials were in Yerevan to hold a series of meetings with their counterparts from the Armenian Ministry of Defense and to participate in the working session of the Franco-Armenian Defense Committee. 

The delegation included Lieutenant Colonel Andree Evrard, the Defence Attache of France to Georgia, Armenia and Azerbaijan, Captain Alexis Willer, the Head of the French Joint Staff International Military Cooperation with Europe and the CIS Region, and Major Sebastian Jacot, a representative of the French Joint Staff.  Visiting analyst Hrant Kostanyan from the Centre for European Studies (CEPS) also attended the briefing at the RSC office.

In an exclusive analysis for Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty’s (RFE/RL) Azerbaijani Service (Radio Azadlyg), RSC Director Richard Giragosian assessed the implications for Armenian foreign policy from the next Armenian government. 

Entitled, “The Next Armenian Government: The Outlook for Nagorno Karabakh,” Giragosian noted that “as the new (Armenian) government is widely expected to focus more on domestic economic issues than on foreign policy options, and as the ministers of defense and foreign affairs are most likely to return to their previous posts, there is little indication of any real or sudden shift in policy,” adding that “for the more fundamental elements of Armenian foreign policy, the twin pillars of Nagorno Karabakh and Turkey remain largely unchanged.”

He further noted, however, that while “there are few signs of any real change,” as “Armenia’s strategic partnership with Russia remains unchallenged, the real danger for Armenia now is from a deepening of dependence on Russia.  And this danger is only exacerbated by Armenia’s vulnerability from being hostage to Russian policies elsewhere, such as its aggression against Ukraine, for the most prominent example.  In this way, Armenia is in danger of becoming a “captive nation” isolated on the “wrong side of history” and imprisoned behind what seem to be Russian President Putin’s desire to reconstruct a new “iron curtain.” 

www.azadliq.org/content/article/25333943.html

In the fourth in a series of RSC commentaries regularly published on the Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty’s (RFE/RL) Armenian Service website blog, RSC Director Richard Giragosian presented a unique analysis of Armenian politics entitled, “Armenia’s Game of Thrones.”

English-language: www.armenialiberty.org/content/blog/25333731.html

Armenian-language version: www.azatutyun.am/content/blog/25335116.html